IvyArcIvyArc
3

Magnus Gold

3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 92

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 44 · 1m Gd 119 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 44 par19/12C9OR 44C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 23/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 58 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 12/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 66 par12/02C9OR 66C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 71 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m 118 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 76 par17/04C9OR 76C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 1m 122 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 78 par4/06C5OR 78C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 1m70y 118 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 80 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m70y 12011/09C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-07-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-06-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-05-19Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-04-17Tampa Bay Downs?5th9th−4
2026-04-01Tampa Bay Downs?3rd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/121/044/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20254th33/10%67%+0.67
23/01/20262nd20/10%89%+0.89
12/02/20266th9/488%38%-0.51
01/04/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15
17/04/20265th7/282%50%-0.32
19/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
04/06/20264th10/382%67%-0.16
08/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
11/09/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04