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4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 23/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 91 · 1m1f Fas 122 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 91 par23/07C6OR 91C5 @ Colonial Downs 09/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 97 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 97 parC5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 92 par28/11C5OR 92C6 @ Gulfstream 02/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m70y Fas 121 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Sam Houston Race Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 87 par7/02C5OR 87C5 @ Sam Houston Race Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Keeneland 03/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 102 · 1m1f Gd 118 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 102 par3/04C5OR 102C8 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m 124 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 95 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 96 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 96 par23/05C8OR 96projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-23Churchill Downs?7th10th−3
2026-05-10Churchill Downs?5th8th−3
2026-04-03Keeneland?12th12th0
2026-03-01Sam Houston Race Park?5th5th0
2026-02-07Sam Houston Race Park?7th7th0
2026-01-02Gulfstream?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/072/013/0423/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength5%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20253rd9/276%50%-0.26
09/08/20258th25/10%0%0.00
28/11/20256th25/10%50%+0.50
02/01/20267th20/10%0%0.00
07/02/20267th13/266%14%-0.52
01/03/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
03/04/202612th50/10%0%0.00
10/05/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
23/05/20267th16/116%0%-0.16