5
Caumsett
8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |