1
Collected Bond
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 70
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-06-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 13/03/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 22/04/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 07/06/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |