Patty Van Twinkle
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 87
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/01/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 18% | -0.56 |
| 15/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |