2
Rye Smile
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 78
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/08/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |