4
St Bernadette
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/08/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |