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Missed The Turn

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 26/05/2024 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f Slo 11926/05C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 22/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark22/06/2024 · OR 65 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 71 · 5f110y Slo 119 · beat its mark25/07/2024 · OR 71 par25/07C6OR 71C6 @ Keeneland 11/10/2024 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark11/10/2024 · OR 74 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2024 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 72 · 7f Fas 119 · below its mark30/11/2024 · OR 72 par30/11C6OR 72C9 @ Laurel Park 09/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark09/03/2025 · OR 69 parC6 @ Laurel Park 30/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark30/03/2025 · OR 73 par30/03C6OR 73C6 @ Churchill Downs 25/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark25/05/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Fair Grounds 26/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 120 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 85 par26/02C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-26Fair Grounds?7th7th0
2025-05-25Churchill Downs?9th10th−1
2025-03-30Laurel Park?2nd3rd−1
2025-03-09Laurel Park?1st5th−4
2024-11-30Churchill Downs?10th11th−1
2024-10-11Keeneland?10th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0511/1030/0326/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/20249th7/163%11%-0.52
22/06/20243rd14/126%78%+0.51
25/07/20242nd10/382%86%+0.03
11/10/202410th40/10%18%+0.18
30/11/202410th50/10%18%+0.18
09/03/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
30/03/20252nd9/153%75%+0.22
25/05/20259th40/10%20%+0.20
26/02/20267th33/10%14%+0.14