7
Texas Free
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |