5
Airdrop
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 26/08/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 28/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 06/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |