IvyArcIvyArc
7

Penitent

3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 75

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Turfway Park 15/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 47 · 6f 120 · beat its mark15/01/2026 · OR 47 par15/01C9OR 47C7 @ Turfway Park 05/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Turfway Park 14/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 73 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 73 par14/03C8OR 73C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f 115 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 73 · 6f Gd 120 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 73 par6/05C5OR 73C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 74 · 1m70y 118 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m Fm 115 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 65 par8/07C8OR 65C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 64 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f 118 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 69 par2/09C8OR 69projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd6th−3
2026-08-19Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2026-07-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th10th−3
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-05-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-04-21Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0121/048/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
05/03/20268th25/10%0%0.00
14/03/20269th25/10%11%+0.11
21/04/20264th40/10%50%+0.50
06/05/20264th40/10%63%+0.63
11/06/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
08/07/20267th33/10%0%0.00
19/08/20268th40/10%13%+0.13
02/09/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56