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7

Our Jalapeno

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 79

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f Fas 1204/07C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 5f 120 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 55 par29/07C6OR 55C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 70 par20/05C5OR 70C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 6f Slo 118 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 69 par10/06C5OR 69C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 72 par9/07C5OR 72C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS22/08C5C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 76 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 76 par11/09C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-08-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?10th9th+1
2026-07-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-05-20Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th7th0
2025-07-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0710/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20252nd9/488%86%-0.02
29/07/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
20/05/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
10/06/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
09/07/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38
22/08/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
11/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18