IvyArcIvyArc
2

Hf Firecracker

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 65

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: BHA39
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/05/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1f30y Fas 12421/05C8BHA41 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 41 · 1f130y Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 41 parBHA39 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 39 · 1f180y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 39 par1/0739OR 39C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 42 · 1f130y Fas 126 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 42 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 1f180y 126 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 51 par9/10C8OR 51C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 60 · 1f110y 128 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 60 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 1f130y 128 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 61 par11/06C5OR 61C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 1f130y Fas 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 60 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 62 · 1f130y 128 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 62 par1/09C5OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd2nd+1
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-05-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0
2025-10-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st5th−3
2025-09-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/055/0911/061/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20245th15/261%50%-0.11
15/05/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
01/07/20259th25/10%0%0.00
05/09/20252nd20/10%86%+0.86
09/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
13/05/20269th5/174%11%-0.63
11/06/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
06/08/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
01/09/20264th4/179%57%-0.22