5
Jess A Lookin
3yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA59 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |