9
Lights N Lips
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |