11
Beckon
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 61
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 06/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 38% | -0.55 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 25/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |