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3

Clansman

8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner in the spring but was again below form back in the right grade at Beverley latest. Bounce back required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 15/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m3f15y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2025 · OR 70 par15/064OR 705 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m4f98y Std 138 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 67 · 2m56y Std 140 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 67 par15/025OR 675 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 66 · 1m4f98y Std 134 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 69 · 1m6f21y Std 129 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 69 par7/045OR 695 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 1m4f98y Std 129 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 69 · 2m102y Std 131 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 69 par29/045OR 692 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 71 · 2m56y Sta 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m4f23y Sft 138 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 71 par29/085OR 71projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley57th7th0
2026-06-27Newcastle217th13th+3
2026-04-29Southwell51st1st0
2026-04-20Newcastle53rd3rd0
2026-04-07Southwell53rd3rd0
2026-03-12Newcastle51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0612/0329/0429/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/202511th18/15%23%+0.18
09/01/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
15/02/20262nd17/255%75%+0.20
12/03/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
07/04/20263rd4/179%33%-0.46
20/04/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
29/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
27/06/202617th50/10%16%+0.16
29/08/20267th12/137%14%-0.23