6
Jujubella
5yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 66
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA66 | 14th | 16th | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 01/05/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 30/07/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 19% | -0.29 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |