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4

L'Eagle Aid

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who wasted no time getting back to form when third of 8 in handicap at Pontefract (1½m, good) last week, doing well under the circumstances having been kept much handier than the first 2 in a well-run race. Looks ready to strike.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m4f98y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 78 par21/034OR 784 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 77 · 1m4f104y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 76 · 1m4f63y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 76 par8/054OR 765 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m4f63y Goo 142 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m4f63y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 75 par11/075OR 754 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 75 · 1m4f13y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 73 · 1m4f63y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 73 par2/084OR 735 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m4f23y Sft 139 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Pontefract 24/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 70 · 1m4f5y Gd 142 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 70 par24/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-08-29Beverley56th6th0
2026-08-02Chester43rd2nd+1
2026-07-22Catterick43rd2nd+1
2026-07-11Chester55th5th0
2026-06-27Chester53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0327/062/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
12/04/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
08/05/20266th9/276%64%-0.12
27/06/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
11/07/20265th10/382%43%-0.40
22/07/20263rd15/890%33%-0.57
02/08/20263rd11/142%67%+0.25
29/08/20266th4/179%29%-0.50
24/09/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05