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8

Molinari

9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 63

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2024 with back-to-back wins. Hit the frame several times last year and, while his 3 comeback runs this summer have been short of his best, he's dangerous to dismiss back down in grade from an attractive mark, particularly if the market speaks in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 26/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m4f98y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 74 par26/074OR 744 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 70 par14/105OR 705 @ Newcastle 06/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Std 140 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m4f98y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 70 par7/114OR 705 @ Newcastle 13/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m2f Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 69 par19/064OR 694 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m4f98y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 66 · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 66 par10/084OR 66projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-10Ayr412th11th+1
2026-07-25Newcastle46th5th+1
2026-06-19Ayr48th7th+1
2025-12-13Newcastle54th4th0
2025-11-07Newcastle410th9th+1
2025-11-06Newcastle52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/076/1119/0610/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength33%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
04/10/20257th12/137%45%+0.09
14/10/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
06/11/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
07/11/202510th5/174%0%-0.74
13/12/20254th20/10%73%+0.73
19/06/20268th25/10%22%+0.22
25/07/20266th40/10%58%+0.58
10/08/202612th33/10%8%+0.08