Moon Sniper
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |