7
Mr Moonshine
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 70
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 17/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/09/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |