Rodoya
4yo Filly · 10-2 · OR 70
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-12-01 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Nottingham | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-05-30 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 08/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |