9
Sogniamo
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 64
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 80/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 20/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |