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10

Sophiesticate

7yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 55

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a deserved fourth success at Musselburgh (13f) in July. Well below par back on softer ground since, though, and hasn't shown much on 2 previous tries on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 134 · below its mark02/12/2025 · OR 59 par2/126OR 596 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m GF 132 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m4f15y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 54 par4/066OR 546 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 1m4f104y Gd 122 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 1m4f104y Gd 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 52 par30/066OR 526 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 51 · 1m2f GF 131 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 1m5f Gd 133 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 51 par31/076OR 516 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m3f15y Sft 134 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m5f26y Sft 129 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 57 par18/095OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr58th8th0
2026-09-02Hamilton66th7th−1
2026-07-31Musselburgh61st2nd−1
2026-07-20Ayr63rd4th−1
2026-06-30Musselburgh63rd4th−1
2026-06-22Musselburgh63rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1222/0631/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength18%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/12/20257th66/10%14%+0.14
20/05/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
04/06/20266th12/137%50%+0.13
22/06/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
30/06/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
20/07/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
31/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
02/09/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
18/09/20268th80/10%22%+0.22