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Blake's Monarch

2yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 86

Newcastle · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been gelded/had a breathing operation and got off the mark back in calmer waters sporting a first-time tongue strap in 8-runner novice at Redcar (5f, good to firm) just over 2 weeks ago, making all having broke well. Handicapper taken no chances with his opening mark but may well kick on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f20y Std 13311/0552 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS30/0521 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 21 · OR - · 5f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS20/0614 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 86 par15/094OR 86projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar41st1st0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot110th6th+4
2026-05-30Chester26th4th+2
2026-05-11Wolverhampton52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0530/0520/0615/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20262nd10/147%90%+0.43
30/05/20266th10/147%50%+0.03
20/06/202610th150/10%55%+0.55
15/09/20261st11/893%100%+0.07