7
Eleven Eighty Two
2yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 67
Newcastle · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ripon | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -29.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 42% | -0.43 |