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2

Havana Lightning

2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 85

Newcastle · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed why she'd been well backed on debut when a decisive winner at Yarmouth second time up. Ran below that level in Group 2 Queen Mary next time but not discredited in a tongue tie when sixth of 13 in listed race at Newbury (5f, good to firm) 7 weeks ago. Respected on nursery debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength94%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS15/0424 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f42y Goo 12820/0541 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0611 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 85 · 5f34y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 85 par14/081OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Newbury16th2nd+3
2026-06-17Royal Ascot118th14th+4
2026-05-20Yarmouth41st1st0
2026-04-15Newmarket25th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0420/0517/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +29.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20265th6/594%43%-0.51
20/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
17/06/202618th80/10%35%+0.35
14/08/20266th16/116%58%+0.43