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4

Kentucky Rain

2yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 82

Newcastle · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed the odds in 5f Beverley maiden in July but below that level upped in grade the last twice, most recently when fourth of 7 in conditions stakes at Chester (6f, good) just under 6 weeks ago. Tongue tie reapplied for her nursery bow and more is needed to feature.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 12822/0541 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0615 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 12520/0751 @ Deauville 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 85 · 4f213y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 85 par8/081OR 852 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f17y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 84 par22/082OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Chester24th2nd+2
2026-08-08Deauville14th0th+3
2026-07-20Beverley51st2nd−1
2026-06-17Royal Ascot116th12th+4
2026-05-22Goodwood42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0517/0620/078/0822/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -29.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
17/06/202616th25/10%42%+0.42
20/07/20261st1/499%100%+0.01
08/08/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
22/08/20264th9/276%50%-0.26