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3

Not My Type

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 84

Newcastle · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

No Nay Never filly who went 2-2 when making all in novice at Beverley (5f, good) in August. Struggled at listed level later that month but fared a lot better making her nursery debut back at 5f when fifth of 11 at Newmarket (good to firm) last week. Considered on all-weather bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 12824/0744 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f Goo 13513/0841 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 84 par31/081OR 843 @ Newmarket 24/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 84 par24/093OR 84projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Newmarket35th4th+1
2026-08-31Ripon15th1st+3
2026-08-13Beverley41st1st0
2026-07-24Sandown41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0713/0831/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
31/08/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
24/09/20265th16/116%60%+0.44