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6

Peaceful Warrior

2yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 80

Newcastle · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Knew his job and made a successful debut in 8-runner novice at Yarmouth (6f, good) in May. Struggled on his next couple of starts and spoiled his chance at the start when fourth of 9 in nursery at Chester (5f, good to soft) just under 3 weeks ago. Handicapper drops him another 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f3y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS20/0523 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS10/0732 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 84 par19/082OR 843 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 82 · 5f15y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 82 par12/093OR 82projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester34th3rd+1
2026-08-19York215th13th+2
2026-07-10Ascot34th3rd+1
2026-05-20Yarmouth21st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0510/0719/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
10/07/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
19/08/202615th22/10%18%+0.18
12/09/20264th10/147%63%+0.15