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10

Baldosa

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50

Newcastle · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap · 1m 5y

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first win at the twelfth attempt at Nottingham in July and followed that up with a decent third at Redcar. Might have found next run coming too soon so must be respected given more of a break this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 55 · 6f GS 130 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 55 par7/046OR 556 @ Doncaster 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 53 · 7f6y Goo 123 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 50 · 7f219y Goo 130 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 50 par7/056OR 506 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Std 122 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m2f Goo 124 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 49 par15/066OR 496 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 49 · 1m2f50y Goo 125 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 51 · 1m2f1y Goo 126 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 51 par19/076OR 516 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 51 · 1m1f170y Goo 126 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f42y Std 130 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 50 par2/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle66th6th0
2026-07-27Ripon66th6th0
2026-07-19Redcar63rd3rd0
2026-07-04Nottingham61st1st0
2026-06-15Wetherby64th4th0
2026-06-02Newcastle62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/042/0619/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -9.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/202611th16/116%23%+0.07
25/04/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
07/05/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
02/06/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
15/06/20264th15/261%67%+0.06
04/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
19/07/20263rd7/491%71%-0.19
27/07/20266th9/488%17%-0.71
02/09/20266th9/276%55%-0.22