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Fickle Mcselfish

3yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 65

Newcastle · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap · 1m 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Transformed by switch to front-running tactics when winning at Newcastle in March and has remained in good form, clear of the rest when second of 11 in handicap at Ripon (1m, good) in April. 5 lb higher now, though, and entitled to be sharper for this outing after 168-day absence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 22/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS22/1155 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Southwell 03/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f16y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS3/0146 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 53 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Newcastle 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m5y Sta 121 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 51 par14/026OR 516 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 50 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 50 par26/036OR 506 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m GS 130 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 60 par16/046OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-16Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-03-26Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-03-19Newcastle61st1st0
2026-02-14Newcastle65th5th0
2026-01-22Newcastle64th4th0
2026-01-03Southwell47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1122/0126/0316/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20259th25/10%11%+0.11
19/12/20259th40/10%33%+0.33
03/01/20267th200/10%14%+0.14
22/01/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
14/02/20265th28/10%43%+0.43
19/03/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
26/03/20263rd7/282%82%+0.00
16/04/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27