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3

Sailor's Return

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64

Newcastle · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap · 1m 5y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at fifth attempt for David O'Meara when landing 10-runner handicap at Southwell in August. Not seen to best effect when 5½ lengths fifth of 12 to Gladiadora over same C&D last time. Her style of racing should be well suited to this track and bold bid anticipated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 21/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS21/01C5C0 @ Chantilly 05/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Std 120C0 @ Chantilly 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12316/03C?5 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f195y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f6y GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 67 par3/075OR 675 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 67 · 6f195y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 63 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 63 par3/086OR 635 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 61 · 1m13y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 64 par17/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell65th5th0
2026-08-31Southwell51st0th+1
2026-08-03Ripon64th4th0
2026-07-09Carlisle510th9th+1
2026-07-03Doncaster56th5th+1
2026-06-15Carlisle56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0115/063/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20269th14/126%20%-0.06
05/02/20264th50/10%70%+0.70
16/03/20264th28/10%79%+0.79
15/06/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
03/07/20266th11/142%44%+0.02
09/07/202610th12/137%0%-0.37
03/08/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
31/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
17/09/20265th4/179%64%-0.15