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8

Truly Special

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 56

Newcastle · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap · 1m 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has improved since joining current yard winning 6f event at Carlisle in June and 7f event there in August. The step back up to 1m shouldn't be an issue, though she has yet to prove herself as effective on this surface as she is on turf

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 01/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 6f1y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS1/0854 @ Beverley 24/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m2y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 60 par14/096OR 606 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m53y Goo 131 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 06/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f14y Std 133 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 57 par6/116OR 576 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 53 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 53 par18/056OR 536 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 5f182y Sft 131 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 6f195y Goo 125 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 53 par11/086OR 53projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-11Carlisle61st1st0
2026-06-08Carlisle61st1st0
2026-05-18Redcar66th6th0
2026-04-26Wetherby66th6th0
2025-11-06Newcastle69th9th0
2025-10-14Leicester63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0814/1018/0511/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20257th40/10%50%+0.50
24/08/20255th20/10%67%+0.67
14/09/20255th4/179%43%-0.36
14/10/20253rd11/142%78%+0.36
06/11/20259th18/15%11%+0.06
26/04/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
18/05/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
08/06/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
11/08/20261st25/10%100%+1.00