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5

Tarot

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 76

Newcastle · Download The Raceday Ready App Fillies' Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Kempton novice winner 12 months ago who ran close to her best when fourth of 9 in handicap at Yarmouth (6f, good) just over 2 weeks ago. Down in class and not discounted returned to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 18/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 12818/0744 @ Newbury 28/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 1285 @ Kempton 15/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f Sta 12815/0954 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 6f Sta 128 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 85 · 6f17y Gd 135 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par30/054OR 852 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 83 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 83 par31/074OR 834 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 80 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 6f3y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 78 par15/093OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth34th3rd+1
2026-09-05Kempton45th5th0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton46th6th0
2026-07-11Newmarket26th4th+2
2026-05-30Chester47th7th0
2025-10-10Kempton41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0710/1031/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20252nd9/153%90%+0.37
28/08/20252nd9/488%90%+0.02
15/09/20253rd11/486%80%-0.06
10/10/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
30/05/20267th12/137%40%+0.03
11/07/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
31/07/20266th7/163%38%-0.26
05/09/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
15/09/20264th4/179%63%-0.16