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4

Egotistical

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 67

Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account at the fourth attempt in a 6f novice at Redcar in April. Hasn't kicked on in handicaps, though shaped as if worth a try over further when fourth of 7 at Kempton (6f) last time. Merits consideration for much-respected yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 18/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f16y Std 12818/1254 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0444 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 5f217y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 130 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 71 par2/065OR 715 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 70 · 6f3y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Lingfield 17/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 69 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 69 par17/085OR 695 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 68 · 6f Sta 136 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 68 par2/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Kempton54th4th0
2026-08-17Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-06-26Yarmouth54th4th0
2026-06-02Pontefract57th7th0
2026-04-30Redcar41st0th+1
2026-04-18Nottingham43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1230/0417/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -10.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/12/20253rd6/168%80%+0.12
20/01/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
18/04/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
30/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
02/06/20267th2/189%14%-0.75
26/06/20264th13/891%25%-0.66
17/08/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
02/09/20264th7/282%50%-0.32