5
Espanita
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 67
Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 7f 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 19/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |