8
Kilfrush Desert
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 65
Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 7f 14y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-04-16 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 02/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |