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3

March Ahead

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 68

Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 7f 14y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 6f Carlisle novice last summer, leaving Kevin Ryan after final outing that year. Hasn't offered much in 2 starts this season, though possibly needed the run after a further 3 months off when mid-field here 26 days ago. This should reveal more back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 05/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 1285/0655 @ Haydock 18/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12618/0755 @ Carlisle 20/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f182y GF 12820/0852 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 75 · 6f111y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 75 par11/092OR 755 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 73 · 6f212y Goo 133 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 73 par17/105OR 734 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 6f6y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 72 par27/054OR 725 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 70 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle57th7th0
2026-05-27Hamilton45th4th+1
2025-10-17Haydock54th4th0
2025-09-11Doncaster28th4th+3
2025-08-20Carlisle51st1st0
2025-07-18Haydock56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0611/095/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20254th20/10%40%+0.40
18/07/20256th33/10%44%+0.44
20/08/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
11/09/20258th22/10%36%+0.36
17/10/20254th9/153%70%+0.17
27/05/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
05/09/20267th25/10%54%+0.54