10
Rousham
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 61
Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 7f 14y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 14/06/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |