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Blue Force

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Newcastle · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

52%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

After 3 months off, bounced back to winning ways from his reduced mark at Wolverhampton (6f) in August. Has continued in good heart both outings since despite starting slowly, fourth of 10 over this C&D 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 68 par6/025OR 685 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 66 · 5f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 66 par5/035OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 64 par13/045OR 645 @ Wolverhampton 29/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f21y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 61 · 6f20y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 61 par17/085OR 615 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f21y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 65 · 5f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 65 par19/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle54th3rd+1
2026-09-07Wolverhampton54th3rd+1
2026-08-17Wolverhampton51st0th+1
2026-05-29Wolverhampton59th8th+1
2026-04-13Newcastle56th5th+1
2026-04-04Wolverhampton53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/024/0417/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20268th22/10%30%+0.30
20/02/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
05/03/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
04/04/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
13/04/20266th7/163%38%-0.26
29/05/20269th28/10%11%+0.11
17/08/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
07/09/20264th15/890%63%-0.28
19/09/20264th25/10%67%+0.67