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5

Celtic Arrow

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 63

Newcastle · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the frame in maidens at this course on first 3 starts and improved when runner-up on handicap debut at Thirsk (6f) in July. Hasn't quite managed to kick on since, though wasn't disgraced when fifth of 14 here (6f) last time. Cheekpieces added.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS4/0244 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS24/0244 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS11/0345 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 66 · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 66 par1/075OR 665 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f2y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 67 par1/085OR 675 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f36y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 66 par17/085OR 665 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 65 · 6f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 65 par5/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle55th4th+1
2026-08-17Wolverhampton510th9th+1
2026-08-01Doncaster55th4th+1
2026-07-01Thirsk52nd1st+1
2026-03-11Newcastle42nd0th+2
2026-02-24Newcastle44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/021/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -16.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/02/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78
24/02/20264th16/116%70%+0.54
11/03/20262nd6/168%75%+0.07
01/07/20262nd20/10%90%+0.90
01/08/20265th11/271%43%-0.28
17/08/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
05/09/20265th7/163%69%+0.06