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7

Dc Cogent

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Newcastle · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came in a C&D maiden last spring but has made the frame several times in handicaps this year, racing off a career-low mark when second of 13 at Redcar 16 days ago. Can make his presence felt once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 68 par10/035OR 685 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 67 · 5f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 66 · 5f8y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 66 par9/055OR 665 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 66 par28/055OR 666 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 64 par20/076OR 646 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 62 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 61 par15/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar62nd2nd0
2026-09-03Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-20Beverley67th7th0
2026-06-16Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-05-28Ripon58th7th+1
2026-05-18Carlisle56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0318/0520/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/03/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
13/04/20264th10/382%63%-0.20
09/05/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
18/05/20266th4/179%44%-0.35
28/05/20268th8/158%0%-0.58
16/06/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
20/07/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
03/09/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
15/09/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65