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4

Golden Havana

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63

Newcastle · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 with success over this C&D in December. Had been proving consistent in defeat this season until having excuses the last twice, denied a clear run at Redcar 16 days ago. Could fare better back here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f Std 132 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 62 par31/016OR 626 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 63 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 63 par19/056OR 636 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 62 par16/065OR 626 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 5f GF 134 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 64 par28/075OR 646 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 64 · 5f1y Gd 135 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 137 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 65 par15/096OR 65projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar612th12th0
2026-07-31Musselburgh65th5th0
2026-07-28Beverley52nd1st+1
2026-07-20Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-06-16Thirsk52nd1st+1
2026-06-02Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/012/0628/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/01/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
20/04/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
19/05/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
02/06/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
16/06/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
20/07/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
28/07/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35
31/07/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
15/09/202612th17/255%8%-0.47