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6

Mayflyer

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 62

Newcastle · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went the right way in 3 starts for Harry Charlton early this year and, after 5 months off, took another step forward on handicap/stable debut when third over this C&D in July. Will need to find more again after a further 2 months off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 02/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS2/0144 @ Wolverhampton 23/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f20y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS23/0145 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f1y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS25/0255 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 62 · 5f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 62 par31/075OR 62projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newcastle53rd2nd+1
2026-02-25Lingfield53rd2nd+1
2026-01-23Wolverhampton44th2nd+2
2026-01-02Chelmsford City45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0123/0125/0231/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +24.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/01/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
23/01/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
25/02/20263rd22/10%60%+0.60
31/07/20263rd33/10%82%+0.82