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Sergeant Mayer

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 63

Newcastle · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on his reduced mark at Nottingham in August and followed up at Leicester, before also scoring in decisive fashion at Redcar 8 days ago. Carries a penalty but he can make another bold bid in his current form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 13/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 66 · 5f42y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 66 par13/105OR 665 @ Newcastle 21/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 66 · 5f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 64 · 5f3y GS 134 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 64 par7/046OR 645 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 5f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 60 · 5f217y Goo 130 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 60 par18/056OR 606 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 56 · 5f8y Goo 131 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 56 par3/086OR 566 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 59 · 5f GS 132 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Redcar 23/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 63 par23/095OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Redcar51st0th+1
2026-09-08Leicester61st1st0
2026-08-03Nottingham61st1st0
2026-07-18Ripon66th6th0
2026-05-18Redcar69th9th0
2026-04-21Pontefract56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1021/043/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20254th10/147%57%+0.10
21/10/20258th17/255%46%-0.09
07/04/202611th14/126%17%-0.10
21/04/20266th11/271%0%-0.71
18/05/20269th18/15%20%+0.15
18/07/20266th11/142%50%+0.08
03/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
08/09/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
23/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18