Falcon Nine
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 5y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Haydock | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 09/09/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 25/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |