Gressington
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60
Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 5y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/05/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 16/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |