Just Typical

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59

Newcastle · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 5y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C5.3

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-15	Redcar	5	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-08-31	Southwell	6	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-06	Newmarket	5	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-07-08	Chepstow	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-26	Newmarket	5	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-06-10	Kempton	5	8th	7th	+1	3.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength29%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/12/2025	3rd	17/2	55%	71%	+0.16
20/12/2025	5th	11/2	71%	56%	-0.15
10/01/2026	5th	4/1	79%	60%	-0.19
10/06/2026	8th	40/1	0%	30%	+0.30
26/06/2026	4th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
08/07/2026	3rd	1/1	95%	50%	-0.45
06/08/2026	4th	10/3	82%	50%	-0.32
31/08/2026	4th	7/2	82%	77%	-0.05
15/09/2026	8th	9/2	76%	42%	-0.35